The 30% Statistic: What New Cannabis Addiction Research Actually Shows

If you’ve seen headlines about cannabis addiction in recent years, you’ve likely run into the same number: 30%. According to the CDC, roughly 3 in 10 people who use cannabis will develop cannabis use disorder (CUD) at some point in their lives.

The statistic is often quoted, usually without much context. It has become a quick way to show the risks of regular cannabis use.

But the number itself doesn’t explain why some people develop problematic patterns while others don’t. That question has lingered for years. A new study published in Nature in 2025 doesn’t overturn what we know about cannabis addiction—but it offers a clearer look at one possible reason the 30% figure exists at all.

Could genetics underlie one’s desire to use, or even misuse, cannabis? Researchers at UC San Diego teamed up with 23andMe to determine whether or not our genes, particularly genetic variants in them, could predict one’s future cannabis use.

In the Nature study, 131,895 participants reported their cannabis use patterns through surveys and also provided their genetic data for analysis.

Out of thousands of genetic markers analyzed, two genes showed consistent associations with cannabis use behavior.

• CADM2, a gene previously linked to impulsivity, obesity, risk-taking behavior, and other substance use traits. Researchers associated certain variants with a higher likelihood of frequent cannabis use.
• GRM3, a gene involved in neuron signaling and previously connected to psychiatric conditions such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Researchers linked variants in this gene to cannabis use behaviors.

These variants alone did not decide if someone would develop CUD. However, they suggest a possible heritable factor. This means genes from your family could potentially influence whether you try cannabis and how often you use it, which could help inform future prevention.

For example, individuals who already undergo genetic testing for health insights—through platforms like 23andMe or clinical panels—might one day receive non-alarmist risk signals similar to those already used for alcohol metabolism, cholesterol, or mental health predisposition. Not a warning label, but a flag: you may be more likely to escalate use under certain conditions.

This research doesn’t mean there’s finally a “cannabis addiction gene.” The genetic influence identified in the study is modest, and the environment still does most of the heavy lifting. Access, stress, mental health, social norms, and life circumstances remain far more predictive than DNA alone.

What the findings do suggest, however, is that vulnerability to frequent cannabis use or conditions like CUD may not be evenly distributed amongst everyone. Some people may have genetic traits that affect impulsivity, reward sensitivity, or brain signaling. These traits can change how they respond to cannabis, even before they try the substance, to know whether dependency could become a problem.

The 30% cannabis addiction rate remains the same, but this research helps explain why the number remains high.

Cannabis use disorder isn’t inevitable, and the CDC proves it with their 30% statistic. Many users are capable of consuming cannabis without experiencing disorders like CUD.

This research simply helps inform us that it may be easier for some people to drift into CUD than previously thought,  and understanding this can be important for prevention, education, and honest public conversation.

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